Orbit propagation using semi-analytical theory and its applications in space debris field

Lifetime estimation of space objects is very important for space debris related studies including mitigation studies and manoeuvre designs. It is essential to have a fast and accurate lifetime prediction tool for studies related to long term evolution of space debris environment. This paper presents the details of the Orbit Prediction using Semi-Analytic Theory (OPSAT) used for lifetime estimation of space objects. It uses BFGS Quasi-Newton algorithm to minimize least square error on apogee and perigee altitudes of a given TLE set to estimate ballistic coefficient (BC). This BC is used for future orbit prediction. OPSAT is evaluated for long term and short term orbit prediction using TLE data. It has been used for identification of potential candidate for active debris removal (ADR) and future projection of space debris environment with ADR.