Does anyone listen when politicians talk? The effect of political commentaries on policy rate decisions and expectations

被引：7

作者：

Demiralp, Selva ^{[1
]}

King, Sharmila ^{[2
]}

Scotti, Chiara ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Koc Univ, Istanbul, Turkey

[2] Univ Pacific, Stockton, CA 95211 USA

[3] Fed Reserve Syst, Board Governors, Washington, DC 20551 USA

来源：

JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE | 2019年 / 95卷

关键词：

Central bank independence; Market expectations; Unconventional policy; MONETARY-POLICY; FEDERAL-RESERVE; DISCRETION; PRESSURES; RULES; ECB;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jimonfin.2019.03.006

中图分类号：

F8 [财政、金融];

学科分类号：

0202 ;

摘要：

This paper investigates the effects of political commentaries on policy rate decisions and policy expectations in the United States and the euro area. The results suggest that political commentaries do influence policy rate expectations in both regions, even after controlling for macroeconomic releases and immediate interest rate expectations. During the precrisis period, the European Central Bank seems to have steered its policy in line with political commentaries that suggested further easings, consistent with market expectations. Meanwhile, market participants expected the Fed to tighten policy in response to hawkish comments in the post-2007 period. (C) 2019 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

引用

页码：95 / 111

页数：17

共 37 条

[1] THE FEDERAL-RESERVE AND THE ELECTORAL CYCLE [J].