Epidemiology and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in two Indian states

被引：300

作者：

Laxminarayan, Ramanan ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Wahl, Brian ^{[3
,4
]}

Dudala, Shankar Reddy ^{[5
]}

Gopal, K. ^{[6
]}

Mohan, Chandra B. ^{[7
]}

Neelima, S. ^{[8
]}

Reddy, K. S. Jawahar ^{[9
]}

Radhakrishnan, J. ^{[10
]}

Lewnard, Joseph A. ^{[11
,12
]}

机构：

[1] Ctr Dis Dynam Econ & Policy, New Delhi, India

[2] Princeton Univ, Princeton Environm Inst, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA

[3] Johns Hopkins Bloomberg Sch Publ Hlth, Dept Int Hlth, Baltimore, MD USA

[4] Johns Hopkins Bloomberg Sch Publ Hlth, Int Vaccine Access Ctr, Baltimore, MD USA

[5] Govt Med Coll, Dept Community Med, Kadapa, Andhra Pradesh, India

[6] Govt Tamil Nadu, Anim Husb Dairying & Fisheries Dept, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India

[7] Govt Tamil Nadu, Most Backward Classes & Minor Welf Dept, Backward Classes, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India

[8] Guntur Med Coll, Dept Community Med, Guntur, Andhra Pradesh, India

[9] Govt Andhra Pradesh, Dept Hlth Family Welf & Med Educ, Amaravati, Andhra Pradesh, India

[10] Govt Tamil Nadu, Hlth & Family Welf Dept, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India

[11] Univ Calif Berkeley, Sch Publ Hlth, Div Epidemiol, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[12] Univ Calif Berkeley, Coll Engn, Ctr Computat Biol, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

来源：

SCIENCE | 2020年 / 370卷 / 6517期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1126/science.abd7672

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Although most cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have occurred in low-resource countries, little is known about the epidemiology of the disease in such contexts. Data fromthe Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh provide a detailed view into severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission pathways and mortality in a high-incidence setting. Reported cases and deaths have been concentrated in younger cohorts than would be expected from observations in higher-income countries, even after accounting for demographic differences across settings. Among 575,071 individuals exposed to 84,965 confirmed cases, infection probabilities ranged from 4.7 to 10.7% for low-risk and high-risk contact types, respectively. Same-age contacts were associated with the greatest infection risk. Case fatality ratios spanned 0.05% at ages of 5 to 17 years to 16.6% at ages of 85 years or more. Primary data from low-resource countries are urgently needed to guide control measures.

引用

页码：691 / +

页数：33

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