Comparing Future Autonomous Electric Taxis With an Existing Free-Floating Carsharing System

When considering autonomous mobility on demand (AMoD) trends, it is probably safe to assume that they will have a large market share in the near future. In the introductory phases, users of current non-autonomous mobility on demand services such as ride-hailing and carsharing are expected to be among the first users of AMoD systems. The research presented in this paper aims to estimate fares for an AMoD system in this early stages based on rental and financial data provided by a free-floating CS provider. It demonstrates that an autonomous taxi (aTaxi) model requires less vehicles to serve the same demand resulting in the possibility to lower fares. In our model, user behavior is represented by defining three maximal waiting times and three monetary values reflecting their dissatisfaction in the case, where they cannot be served in due time. Two bipartite optimization problems for vehicle-to-user and relocation assignments build the core of the introduced aTaxi model. Fleet size and relocation parameters are chosen according to a utility function representing profit and opportunity costs of users not being served. We compute the reduction in fares to break-even with the current CS profit. Results of a case-study in Munich, Germany, indicate that one aTaxi can replace 2.8-3.7 CS vehicles. The aTaxi operator can therefore reduce fares by 29%-35% to achieve the same profit assuming the same cost structures as in free-floating CS.