The evolution of harmful algal blooms, while dependent upon complex biological interactions, is equally dependent upon the ocean circulation since the circulation provides the basis for the biological interactions by uniting nutrients with light and distributing water proper-ties. For the coastal ocean, the circulation and the resultant water properties, in turn, depend on interactions between both the continental shelf and the deep-ocean and the continental shelf and the estuaries since the deep-ocean and the estuaries are primary nutrient sources. Here we consider a coordinated program of observations and models for the West Florida Continental Shelf (WFS) intended to provide a supportive framework for K. brevis red-tide prediction as well as for other coastal ocean matters of societal concern. Predicated on lessons learned, the goal is to achieve a system complete enough to support data assimilative modeling and prediction. Examples of the observations and models are presented and application is made to aspects of the 2005 red-tide. From an observational perspective, no single set of measurements is adequate. Required are a broad mix of sensors and sensor delivery systems capable of describing the three-dimensional structure of the velocity and density fields. Similarly, models must be complete enough to include the relevant physical processes, and data assimilation provides the integrative framework for maximizing the joint utility of the observations and models. While we are still in the exploratory stages of development, the lessons learned and application examples may be useful to similar programs under development elsewhere. One scientific finding is that the key to understanding K. brevis red-tide on the WFS lies not at the surface, but at depth. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
