Influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation on Southeast Asia rainfall extremes: Observations and predictability

被引：108

作者：

Xavier, Prince ^{[1
,2
]}

Rahmat, Raizan ^{[1
]}

Cheong, Wee Kiong ^{[1
]}

Wallace, Emily ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Ctr Climate Res Singapore, Singapore, Singapore

[2] Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2014年 / 41卷 / 12期

关键词：

POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY; PRECIPITATION; PREDICTION;

D O I：

10.1002/2014GL060241

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

The influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the rainfall distribution of Southeast Asia is studied using TRMM satellite-derived rainfall and rain gauge data. It is shown that convectively active (suppressed) phases of MJO can increase (decrease) the probability of extreme rain events over the land regions by about 30-50% (20-25%) during November-March season. The influence of MJO on localized rainfall extremes are also observed both in rainfall intensity and duration. The Met Office Global Seasonal forecasting system seasonal forecasting system is shown to reproduce the MJO influence on rainfall distribution well despite the model biases over land. Skills scores for forecasting 90th percentile extreme rainfall shows significant skills for convective phases. This study demonstrates the feasibility of deriving probabilistic forecasts of extreme rainfall at medium range.

引用

页码：4406 / 4412

页数：7

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