Yield variability in rainfed crops as influenced by climate variables A micro level investigation into agro-climatic zones of Tamil Nadu, India

Purpose - This paper aims to explore the impact of climate change on yields and yield variances in major rainfed crops and measure possible changes in yields under projected climate changes in different agro-climatic zones of Tamil Nadu, India. Although many empirical studies report the influence of climate change on crop yield, only few address the effect on yield variances. Even in such cases, the reported yield variances were obtained through simulation studies rather than from actual observations. In this context, the present study analyzes the impact of climate change on crops yield and yield variance using the observed yields. Design/methodology/approach - The Just-Pope yield function (1978) is used to analyze the impact of climate change on mean yield and variance. The estimated coefficient from Just-Pope yield function and the projected climatic data for the year 2030 are incorporated to capture the projected changes in crop yield and variances. Findings - By the year 2030, the yield of pulses is estimated to decline in all the zones (Northeast, Northwest, Western, Cauvery delta, South and Southern zones), with significant declines in the Northeast zone (6.07 per cent), Cauvery delta zone (3.55 per cent) and South zone (3.54 per cent). Sorghum yield may suffer more in Western zone (2.63 per cent), Southern zone (1.92 per cent) and Northeast zone (1.62 per cent). Moreover, the yield of spiked millet is more likely to decrease in the Southern zone (1.39 per cent), Northeast zone (1.21 per cent) and Cauvery delta zone (0.24 per cent), and the yield of cotton may also decline in the Northeast zone (12.99 per cent), Northwest zone (8.05 per cent) and Western zone (2.10 per cent) of Tamil Nadu, India. Originality/value - The study recommends introducing appropriate crop insurance policies to address possible financial losses to the farmers. Prioritizing area-specific stress-tolerant crop varieties without complementing yield would sustain crops cultivation further.