Not dangerous anymore but still relapsing? Flawed risk assessment in sexual offenders released from a high security forensic hospital who subsequently relapsed

Risk assessment reports of sexual offenders released from a high security mandatory forensic hospitalization who subsequently relapsed were analyzed in this study. We investigated whether empirically proven risk factors had been taken into account in the risk assessment leading to release. In 14 out of 24 identifiable risk factors offenders were found more problematic in our analyses than they had been found during the risk assessment leading to release. Moreover, in only 5 % of all identified risk factors a traceable description of risk relevant change was given referring to a scientific theory of change. A comprehensive individual analysis of the relevant criminal behaviour was only reported in 17% of the cases. Although these results cannot prove a causal link between insufficient risk assessment and relapse, it seems obvious that professional risk assessment has to rely on the formulation of an individual theory of criminal behaviour, a comprehensive analysis of risk relevant factors and their changes.