Early prediction of biomass in hybrid rye based on hyperspectral data surpasses genomic predictability in less-related breeding material

The demand for sustainable sources of biomass is increasing worldwide. The early prediction of biomass via indirect selection of dry matter yield (DMY) based on hyperspectral and/or genomic prediction is crucial to affordably untap the potential of winter rye (Secale cereale L.) as a dual-purpose crop. However, this estimation involves multiple genetic backgrounds and genetic relatedness is a crucial factor in genomic selection (GS). To assess the prospect of prediction using reflectance data as a suitable complement to GS for biomass breeding, the influence of trait heritability (H-2) and genetic relatedness were compared. Models were based on genomic (GBLUP) and hyperspectral reflectance-derived (HBLUP) relationship matrices to predict DMY and other biomass-related traits such as dry matter content (DMC) and fresh matter yield (FMY). For this, 270 elite rye lines from nine interconnected bi-parental families were genotyped using a 10 k-SNP array and phenotyped as testcrosses at four locations in two years (eight environments). From 400 discrete narrow bands (410 nm-993 nm) collected by an uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) on two dates in each environment, 32 hyperspectral bands previously selected by Lasso were incorporated into a prediction model. HBLUP showed higher prediction abilities (0.41 - 0.61) than GBLUP (0.14 - 0.28) under a decreased genetic relationship, especially for mid-heritable traits (FMY and DMY), suggesting that HBLUP is much less affected by relatedness and H-2. However, the predictive power of both models was largely affected by environmental variances. Prediction abilities for DMY were further enhanced (up to 20%) by integrating both matrices and plant height into a bivariate model. Thus, data derived from high-throughput phenotyping emerges as a suitable strategy to efficiently leverage selection gains in biomass rye breeding; however, sufficient environmental connectivity is needed.