Ensemble flood forecasting: A review

被引：740

作者：

Cloke, H. L. ^{[1
]}

Pappenberger, F. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Kings Coll London, Dept Geog, London WC2R 2LS, England

[2] European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading RG2 9AX, Berks, England

来源：

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY | 2009年 / 375卷 / 3-4期

关键词：

Flood prediction; Uncertainty; Ensemble prediction system; Streamflow; Numerical weather prediction; HYDROLOGIC UNCERTAINTY PROCESSOR; TRANSFORM KALMAN FILTER; RELATIVE ECONOMIC VALUE; APRIL; 2006; FLOOD; SPATIAL VARIABILITY; PREDICTION SYSTEMS; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLES; CATCHMENT RESPONSE; WEATHER FORECASTS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.005

中图分类号：

TU [建筑科学];

学科分类号：

0813 ;

摘要：

Operational medium range flood forecasting systems are increasingly moving towards the adoption of ensembles of numerical weather predictions (NWP), known as ensemble prediction systems (EPS), to drive their predictions. We review the scientific drivers of this shift towards such 'ensemble flood forecasting' and discuss several of the questions surrounding best practice in using EPS in flood forecasting systems. We also review the literature evidence of the 'added value' of flood forecasts based on EPS and point to remaining key challenges in using EPS successfully. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：613 / 626

页数：14

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