Modelling Climate and Societal Resilience in the Eastern Mediterranean in the Last Millennium

被引：58

作者：

Xoplaki, Elena ^{[1
]}

Luterbacher, Juerg ^{[1
,2
]}

Wagner, Sebastian ^{[3
]}

Zorita, Eduardo ^{[3
]}

Fleitmann, Dominik ^{[4
,5
]}

Preiser-Kapeller, Johannes ^{[6
]}

Sargent, Abigail M. ^{[7
]}

White, Sam ^{[8
]}

Toreti, Andrea ^{[9
]}

Haldon, John F. ^{[7
]}

Mordechai, Lee ^{[7
]}

Bozkurt, Deniz ^{[10
]}

Akcer-On, Sena ^{[11
]}

Izdebski, Adam ^{[12
,13
,14
]}

机构：

[1] Justus Liebig Univ Giessen, Dept Geog, Climatol Climate Dynam & Climate Change, Giessen, Germany

[2] Justus Liebig Univ Giessen, Ctr Int Dev & Environm Res, Giessen, Germany

[3] Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Inst Coastal Res, Geesthacht, Germany

[4] Univ Reading, Sch Human & Environm Sci, Dept Archaeol, Reading, Berks, England

[5] Univ Reading, Sch Human & Environm Sci, Ctr Climate Change, Reading, Berks, England

[6] Austrian Acad Sci, Inst Medieval Res, Div Byzantine Res, Vienna, Austria

[7] Princeton Univ, Hist Dept, Princeton, NJ 08544 USA

[8] Ohio State Univ, Hist Dept, Columbus, OH 43210 USA

[9] European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Ispra, Italy

[10] Univ Chile, Dept Geophys, Ctr Climate & Resilience Res, Santiago, Chile

[11] Mugla Sitki Kocman Univ, Geol Engn Dept, Mugla, Turkey

[12] Jagiellonian Univ Krakow, Inst Hist, Byzantine Hist Dept, Krakow, Poland

[13] Inst Adv Study, Sch Hist Studies, Olden Lane, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA

[14] Max Planck Inst Sci Human Hist, Jena, Germany

来源：

HUMAN ECOLOGY | 2018年 / 46卷 / 03期

基金：

瑞士国家科学基金会;

关键词：

Resilience; Eastern Mediterranean; Palaeoclimatology; CMIP5; models; Model/datacomparison; First millennium; Middle Ages; Early modern period; Complex societies; NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; LATE-ANTIQUE; ICE-AGE; VARIABILITY; HOLOCENE; PRECIPITATION; HISTORY; RECONSTRUCTIONS; SIMULATIONS; ENVIRONMENT;

D O I：

10.1007/s10745-018-9995-9

中图分类号：

Q98 [人类学];

学科分类号：

030303 ;

摘要：

This article analyses high-quality hydroclimate proxy records and spatial reconstructions from the Central and Eastern Mediterranean and compares them with two Earth System Model simulations (CCSM4, MPI-ESM-P) for the Crusader period in the Levant (1095-1290 CE), the Mamluk regime in Transjordan (1260-1516 CE) and the Ottoman crisis and CelA cent lI Rebellion (1580-1610 CE). During the three time intervals, environmental and climatic stress tested the resilience of complex societies. We find that the multidecadal precipitation and drought variations in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean cannot be explained by external forcings (solar variations, tropical volcanism); rather they were driven by internal climate dynamics. Our research emphasises the challenges, opportunities and limitations of linking proxy records, palaeoreconstructions and model simulations to better understand how climate can affect human history.

引用

页码：363 / 379

页数：17

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