Conditional Probability of Survival and Prognostic Factors in Long-Term Survivors of High-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer

Objective:High-grade serous ovarian cancers (HGSOC) are heterogeneous, often diagnosed at an advanced stage, and associated with poor overall survival (OS, 39% at five years). There are few data about the prognostic factors of late relapses in HGSOC patients who survived >= five years, long-term survivors (LTS). The aim of our study is to assess the probability of survival according to the already survived time from diagnosis.Methods:Data from HGSOC patients treated between 1995 and 2016 were retrospectively collected to estimate the conditional probability of survival (CPS), probability of surviving Y years after diagnosis when the patient had already survived X years, and to determine the LTS prognostic factors. The primary endpoint was OS.Results:404 patients were included; 120 of them were LTS. Patients were aged 61 years (range: 20-89), WHO performance status 0-1 in 86.9% and 2 in 13.1%, and Federation Internationale de Gynecologie et d'Obstetrique (FIGO) staging III and IV in 82.7% and 17.3% patients. Breast cancer (BRCA) status was available in 116 patients (33% mutated), including 58 LTS (36% mutated). No macroscopic residual disease was observed in 58.4% patients. First-line platinum-based chemotherapy plus paclitaxel was administered in 80.4% of patients (median: six cycles (range: 1-14)). After a 9 point 3-year follow-up, median OS was four years (95% CI: 3.6-4.5). The CPS at five years after surviving one year was 42.8% (95% CI: 35.3-48.3); it increased to 81.7% (95% CI: 75.5-87.8) after four survived years. Progression-free interval>18 months was the only LTS prognostic factor in the multivariable analysis (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.23; 95% CI: 0.13-0.40;p< 0.001).Conclusion:The CPS provided relevant and encouraging clinical information on the life expectancy of HGSOC patients who already survived a period of time after diagnosis. LTS prognostic factors are useful for clinicians and patients.