When will I succeed in my first-year diploma? Survival analysis in Dutch higher education

The goal of this study was to illustrate survival analysis with higher education data and gain insight into a limited set of factors that predict when students passed their first-year examination at a Dutch university. Study participants consisted of 565 first-year students in four departments. Data were collected on when students pass their first-year examination, prior achievement and procrastination. The analysis showed that 69% of the students had not passed their examination within the nominal study length of 12 months. The estimated median lifetime, the time when 50% of the students had passed their examination, was after 23 months. Students from the 2nd department passed their examination fastest. Female students reached the estimated median lifetime at 20 months, younger students at 16 months, older students at 24+ months and students with high prior achievement scores at 12 months. The analysis finally indicated that age, prior achievement and procrastination predicted passing first-year examinations.