Prediction of Intrastate Conflict Using State Structural Factors and Events Data

被引:8
作者
Tikuisis, Peter [1 ]
Carment, David [2 ]
Samy, Yiagadeesen [2 ]
机构
[1] Def Res & Dev Canada, DRDC Toronto, Toronto, ON M3M 3B9, Canada
[2] Carleton Univ, Ottawa, ON K1S 5B6, Canada
关键词
political violence; failed state; early warning; crisis forecast; regression; INTEGRATIVE COMPLEXITY; INDICATORS;
D O I
10.1177/0022002712446129
中图分类号
D81 [国际关系];
学科分类号
030207 ;
摘要
The primary objective of this article is to advance the development of early warning of intrastate conflict by combining country-level structural and events data in a logistic regression model calibrated and validated using split-sample cases. Intrastate conflict is defined by the occurrence of one or more highly destabilizing events collectively termed a crisis of interest (COI). Two separate two-year periods between 1990 and 2005 were examined in twenty-five globally dispersed countries. COIs occurred in about 6 percent of all the half-monthly periods examined. While model accuracy (total correct predictions of COI and non-COI) usually exceeded 90 percent, the model did not generate sufficiently high and consistent precision (correct number of COI over total predicted) and recall (correct number of COI over total observed) for practical use.
引用
收藏
页码:410 / 444
页数:35
相关论文
共 55 条
  • [1] [Anonymous], 2009, Working paper
  • [2] [Anonymous], FOREIGN POLICY
  • [3] Barton R, 2008, EARLY WARNING REV CO
  • [4] Modelling and prediction in a complex world
    Batty, M
    Torrens, PM
    [J]. FUTURES, 2005, 37 (07) : 745 - 766
  • [5] Integrated data for events analysis (IDEA): An event typology for automated events data development
    Bond, D
    Bond, J
    Oh, C
    Jenkins, JC
    Taylor, CL
    [J]. JOURNAL OF PEACE RESEARCH, 2003, 40 (06) : 733 - 745
  • [6] Mapping mass political conflict and civil society - Issues and prospects for the automated development of event data
    Bond, D
    Jenkins, JC
    Taylor, CL
    Schock, K
    [J]. JOURNAL OF CONFLICT RESOLUTION, 1997, 41 (04) : 553 - 579
  • [7] Bond D, 2006, STUD INTELL SER, P130
  • [8] THE 2006 COUNTRY INDICATORS FOR FOREIGN POLICY: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR CANADA
    Carment, David
    El-Achkar, Souleima
    Prest, Stewart
    Samy, Yiagadeesen
    [J]. CANADIAN FOREIGN POLICY, 2006, 13 (01): : 1 - 35
  • [9] Carment David, 2010, SEQUENCING TIMING IS
  • [10] Carment David, 2009, CONFLICT SECURITY FR