Residential past and future energy consumption: Potential savings and environmental impact

In order to identify main drivers behind changes in electricity and fuel consumptions in the household sector in Jordan, two empirical models are developed based on multivariate linear regression analysis. In addition, this paper analyzes and evaluates impacts of introducing some efficient measures, such as high efficiency lightings and solar water heating systems, in the housing stock, on the future fuel and electricity demands and associated reduction in GHG emissions. It was found that fuel unit price, income level, and population are the most important variables that affect demand on electrical power, while population is the most important variable in the case of fuel consumption. Obtained results proved that the multivariate linear regression models can be used adequately to simulate residential electricity and fuel consumptions with very high coefficient of determination. Without employing most effective energy conservation measures, electricity and fuel demands are expected to rise by approximately 100% and 23%, respectively within 10 years time. Consequently, associated GHG emissions resulting from activities within the residential sector are predicted to rise by 59% for the same period. However, if recommended energy management measures are implemented on a gradual basis, electricity and fuel consumptions as well as GHG emissions are forecasted to increase at a lower rate. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.