Prediction of Graft Loss and Death in Patients With Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis

Background. The prognosis of patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) can be accurately determined using the Mayo Clinic Score (MRS), a mathematical model which predicts patient survival. The purpose of our study was to determine the risk of graft loss and/or death among patients who were listed or transplanted because of PSC. Patients and Methods. We analyzed the data of 52 patients, who were placed on the transplant list due to PSC between January 2000 and November 2008 and either did or did not undergo liver transplantation (OLT). The primary end point (EP1) of the study was the patient death for any cause. The secondary end point (EP2) was recurrence of PSC or appearance of CCC or death related to the primary liver disease after OLT (PSC recurrence). The observation time was 60 months. According to the calculated MRS, patients were divided into 3 groups: group A (MRS < 0.56); group B (0.56 <= MRS < 1.56), and group C (MRS > 1.56). The analysis was performed using the LIFETEST and PHREG Procedures of the SAS System. Results. The risk of EP1 occurrence was 2.0 per 1 point of MRS (P < .0006). The risk of EP2 was 2.1 per 1 point of MRS (P < .001). Groups B and C compared with group A showed risks of death of: 0.79 (P = NS) and 6.59 (P < .08), respectively. The percentage of 5-year patient survival rate were 94%, 94%, and 45% according to groups A, B, and C, respectively. Conclusion. The risk of death in patients with MRS > 1.56 was 6.59-fold higher than those with MRS < 0.56. MRS > 1.56 significantly decreased 5 year survival among patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis.