Connection of Solar Activities and Forest Fires in 2018: Events in the USA (California), Portugal and Greece

被引:4
作者
Vyklyuk, Yaroslav [1 ,2 ]
Radovanovic, Milan M. [3 ,4 ]
Stanojevic, Gorica [3 ]
Petrovic, Marko D. [3 ,4 ]
Curcic, Nina B. [3 ]
Milenkovic, Milan [3 ]
Milicevic, Slavica Malinovic [5 ]
Milovanovic, Basko [3 ]
Yamashkin, Anatoliy A. [6 ]
Pesic, Ana Milanovic [3 ]
Lukic, Dobrila [7 ]
Gajic, Mirjana [8 ]
机构
[1] Wenzhou Univ, Coll Mech & Elect Engn, Inst Laser & Optoelect Intelligent Mfg, Wenzhou 325035, Peoples R China
[2] Bukovinian Univ, Fac Informat Technol & Econ, Dept Comp Syst & Technol, 2A Darwin St, UA-58000 Chernovtsy, Ukraine
[3] Geog Inst Jovan Cvijic SASA, 9 Djure Jaksica St, Belgrade 11000, Serbia
[4] South Ural State Univ, Inst Sports Tourism & Serv, 76 Lenin Ave, Chelyabinsk 454080, Russia
[5] Univ Novi Sad, ACIMSI Ctr Meteorol & Environm Modelling, 7 Trg Dositeja Obradovica, Novi Sad 21000, Serbia
[6] Natl Res Ogarev Mordovia State Univ, Fac Geog, 68 Bolshevistskaya St, Saransk 430005, Russia
[7] Eighth Belgrade Grammar Sch, 71 Grcica Milenka St, Belgrade 11000, Serbia
[8] Univ Belgrade, Fac Geog, 3-3 Studentski Trg, Belgrade 11000, Serbia
关键词
solar activity; forest fires; recurrent neural networks; LSTM ensemble;
D O I
10.3390/su122410261
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
The impact of solar activity on environmental processes is difficult to understand and complex for empirical modeling. This study aimed to establish forecast models of the meteorological conditions in the forest fire areas based on the solar activity parameters applying the neural networks approach. During July and August 2018, severe forest fires simultaneously occurred in the State of California (USA), Portugal, and Greece. Air temperature and humidity data together with solar parameters (integral flux of solar protons, differential electron flux and proton flux, solar wind plasma parameters, and solar radio flux at 10.7 cm data) were used in long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural network ensembles. It is found that solar activity mostly affects the humidity for two stations in California and Portugal (an increase in the integral flux of solar protons of > 30 MeV by 10% increases the humidity by 3.25%, 1.65%, and 1.57%, respectively). Furthermore, an increase in air temperature of 10% increases the humidity by 2.55%, 2.01%, and 0.26%, respectively. It is shown that temperature is less sensitive to changes in solar parameters but depends on previous conditions (previous increase of 10% increases the current temperature by 0.75%, 0.34%, and 0.33%, respectively). Humidity in Greece is mostly impacted by solar flux F10.7 cm and previous values of humidity. An increase in these factors by 10% will lead to a decrease in the humidity of 3.89% or an increase of 1.31%, while air temperature mostly depends on ion temperature. If this factor increases by 10%, it will lead to air temperature rising by 0.42%.
引用
收藏
页码:1 / 23
页数:23
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