HbA1c variability in type 2 diabetes is associated with the occurrence of new-onset albuminuria within three years

Aims: To evaluate the association between HbA1c coefficient of variation (HbA1c-CV) and 3-year new-onset albuminuria risk. Methods: A retrospective cohort study involving 716 normoalbuminuric type 2 diabetes patients was conducted between 2010 and 2014. HbA1c-CV was used to categorize patients into low, moderate or high variability groups. Multivariate logistic models were constructed and validated. Integrated discrimination (IDI) and net reclassification (NRI) improvement indices were used to quantify the added predictive value of HbA1c-CV. Results: The mean age of our cohort was 56.1 +/- 12.9 years with a baseline HbA1c of 8.3 +/- 1.3%. Over 3-years of follow-up, 35.2% (n = 252) developed albuminuria. An incremental risk of albuminuria was observed with moderate (6.68-13.43%) and high (above 13.44%) HbA1c-CV categories demonstrating adjusted odds ratios of 1.63 (1.12-2.38) and 3.80 (2.10-6.97) for 3-year new-onset albuminuria, respectively. Including HbA1c-CV for 3-year new-onset albuminuria prediction improved model discrimination (IDI: 0.023, NRI: 0.293, p < 0.05). The final model had a C-statistic of 0.760 +/- 0.018 on validation. Conclusion: HbA1c-CV improves 3-year prediction of new-onset albuminuria. Together with mean HbA1c, baseline urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio and presence of hypertension, accurate 3-year new-onset albuminuria prediction may be possible. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.