Sustainability Assessment Based on Integrating EKC with Decoupling: Empirical Evidence from China

In September 2020, the Chinese government proposed a climate change commitment that aims to make carbon emissions peak before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. In this context, it is important to examine the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions. The Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) and decoupling analysis are commonly used assessment methods for regional sustainable development. Each method has a particular emphasis: the former focuses on long-term trends and the latter on short-term change. Integrating the EKC hypothesis with decoupling analysis is helpful to diagnose the relationship between economic growth and the carbon emissions of the manufacturing industry from the perspective of long-term trends and short-term changes. The results showed that the EKC passed the inflection point for both China's entire manufacturing industry and manufacture of nonmetallic mineral product subsector (MNM), but not in the other four main subsectors from 1995 to 2017. Strong decoupling, weak decoupling, and expansive coupling were observed between CO2 emissions and the value added in China's entire manufacturing industry, in which weak decoupling accounted for the largest proportion. The decoupling index showed a downward trend on the whole. The decoupling status of subsectors from 1995 to 2017 was mainly weak decoupling, but different subsectors also showed characteristics of differentiation. At present, integrating EKC with decoupling has only occurred across the entire manufacturing industry and MNM. This study will provide suggestions for carbon reductions in China and will enrich the assessment methods of sustainable development.