Are false-positive urine markers for the detection of bladder carcinoma really wrong or do they predict tumor recurrence?

Introduction and Objectives: A problem in the interpretation of noninvasive urine tests for detection of bladder carcinoma is the finding of false-positive results. Several authors have described that patients with false-positive results are at high risk for tumor recurrence or progression. Only few data are available for comparing the clinical course of patients with false-positive test results and patients with true-negative results. We studied whether patients with false-positive results of various urine test had a higher recurrence rate than patients with true-negative results. Methods: Urine samples from 61 patients without evidence of active bladder carcinoma were included. Of the 61 patients, 51 had a history of bladder cancer, and 10 underwent transurethral resection for suspect of bladder carcinoma but had negative pathologic findings. Immunocytology (Lewis X and 486p3/12) was performed on bladder washings, and BTAstat and NMP22 were performed on urine samples. Results: During the follow-up period, 22 patients had one or more false-positive BTAstat test results, 25 patients had one or more false-positive NMP22 tests, 42 patients had at least one false-positive Lewis X test, and I I patients had one or more false-positive 486p3/12 test. During a follow-up period of 3-39 months (median, 17.6 months) four patients expected a tumor recurrence. Among patients with false-positive urine test results 2 of 22 (9.1%, BTAstat), 2 of 25 (8%, NMP22), 4 of 42 (9.5%, Lewis X), and 3 of 11 (27.2%, 486p3/12) suffered from tumor recurrence. In contrast, among patients with true-negative test results 2 of 39 (5.2%, BTAstat), 2 of 36 (5.6%, NMP22), 0 of 18 (0%, Lewis X), 1 of 50 (2.0%, 486p3/12) had a tumor recurrence. Conclusions: Patients with a false-positive urine test result do not generally have a greater risk of tumor recurrence or progression than patients with a true-negative result. In our series, only patients with false-positive 486p3/12 test result had a higher recurrence rate. Our findings do not justify a more aggressive adjuvant treatment or surveillance for patients with false-positive urine tests. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.