Tropical Rainfall Linked to Stronger Future ENSO-NAO Teleconnection in CMIP5 Models

被引：32
作者：
Fereday, D. R. [1 ]
Chadwick, R. [1 ]
Knight, J. R. [1 ]
Scaife, A. A. [1 ,2 ]
机构：
[1] Met Off, Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England
[2] Univ Exeter, Coll Engn Math & Phys Sci, Exeter, Devon, England
来源：
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2020年 / 47卷 / 22期
关键词：
North Atlantic Oscillation; El Niñ o– Southern Oscillation; teleconnections; climate change; North Atlantic; Europe; stratosphere; troposphere interactions; NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; NINO-SOUTHERN-OSCILLATION; EL-NINO; ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE; PACIFIC; VARIABILITY; CLIMATE; IMPACT; WINTER; EVENTS;
D O I：
10.1029/2020GL088664
中图分类号：
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号：
07 ;
摘要：
The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has previously been shown to influence the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Here we investigate the ENSO-NAO teleconnection in historical and RCP8.5 scenario CMIP5 simulations and show a future strengthening of the teleconnection under RCP8.5. The teleconnection strength is associated with increased East Pacific tropical rainfall variability. Stratospheric and tropospheric teleconnection pathways are examined, with both pathways having stronger links in the future. The stratospheric pathway involves the Aleutian Low and the stratospheric polar vortex with a downward influence on the NAO. This pathway is clearest in the high-top models that better resolve the stratosphere. The tropospheric pathway is driven by the Pacific subtropical jet strengthening and extending further into the Atlantic in the future, generating increased baroclinicity in the Caribbean and influencing the Atlantic storm track. These results suggest increasing influence of tropical rainfall on extratropical circulation in the future.
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页数：11
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