Ultrasound validation of predictive model for central cervical lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid cancer on BRAF

Aim: To compare the value of predictive power of the models for central cervical lymph node metastasis (CLNM) in papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTCs). Patients & methods: 220 PTCs were prospectively enrolled into the study with pathological examination. We established a new risk model with univariate and multivariate analyses and receiver-operating characteristic curves were plotted. Z-test was performed to compare the area under two curves and validated the predictive model for central CLNM in PTCs. The comparison of previous and new predictive model was analyzed. Results: Microcalcification, capsule contact or involvement, internal flow and BRAF(V600E) mutation were four independent risk factors for PTCs with central CLNMs. The area under the curves for the new and the previous model were 0.948 and 0.934 (p = 0.572), respectively. Conclusion: Two predictive models showed strong consistency in predicting central CLNM in PTCs. The predictive model may be helpful in selecting appropriate treatment method in PTCs.