Assessment of renewable energy transition pathways for a fossil fuel-dependent electricity-producing jurisdiction

This research assesses the transition of a fossil fuel-based electricity production jurisdiction to a renewable-based electricity jurisdiction through an extensive scenario analysis. This fills a knowledge gap where a wide-range of fossil-to-renewable electricity generation pathways is compared within a single analysis framework. To conduct this study, a novel data-intensive electricity system model was developed with the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system and applied to evaluate alternative electricity generation mix scenarios to the year 2050. A case study for Alberta, a fossil fuels-based province in Canada, was conducted. A total of 382 scenarios were analyzed considering different renewable pathways and varying key uncertain future conditions. The greenhouse gas emission abatement and marginal greenhouse gas abatement costs of each scenario were evaluated and compared. Several renewable-based scenarios resulted in significant greenhouse gas abatement at lower costs than the fossil-fuel based business-as-usual scenario. The maximum greenhouse gas abatement possible at a net cost reduction compared to the business-as-usual scenario was found through a specific combination of wind, hydro, and solar power which resulted in over a 90% reduction from 2005 emission levels at -$1.8/t of carbon dioxide equivalent abated. The results of this study provide policy insight for jurisdictions transitioning away from fossil fuel-based electricity to renewables. (C) 2020 International Energy Initiative. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.