Model-specification uncertainty in future area burned by wildfires in Canada

被引:40
|
作者
Boulanger, Yan [1 ]
Parisien, Marc-Andre [2 ]
Wang, Xianli [3 ]
机构
[1] Nat Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Serv, Laurentian Forestry Ctr, Stn St Foy, 1055 PEPS,POB 10380, Quebec City, PQ G1V 4C7, Canada
[2] Nat Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Serv, Northern Forestry Ctr, 5320 122nd St NW, Edmonton, AB T6H 3S5, Canada
[3] Nat Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Serv, Great Lakes Forestry Ctr, 1219 Queen St East, Sault Ste Marie, ON P6A 2E5, Canada
关键词
boreal forest; climate change; consensus model; forest fires; uncertainty; SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS; ADAPTIVE REGRESSION SPLINES; CLIMATE-CHANGE; BOREAL FOREST; ECOLOGICAL THEORY; EXTINCTION RISK; FIRE; MANAGEMENT; SHIFTS; NORTH;
D O I
10.1071/WF17123
中图分类号
S7 [林业];
学科分类号
0829 ; 0907 ;
摘要
Climate change will drive significant changes in annual area burned (burning rates) in the boreal forest although the trends, which are highly variable among studies, which may be caused by model specifications. In order to investigate this, we used 100 models predicting burning rates that are based on two predictor datasets (annual or 30-year averages) and five statistical algorithms (generalised linear model (GLM), random forest, gradient-boosted model (GBM), regression trees, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS)) to build a consensus model projecting future burning rates in boreal Canada with three global climate models (GCMs) (CanESM2, HadGEM and MIROC) and three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Results of the ensemble models were then used to quantify and map the uncertainty created by model specifications. The consensus model projects strong increase (>4-fold by 2080s) in burning rates, particularly under high climate-forcing scenarios. Even with very high goodness-of-fit in the consensus model, the model-specification uncertainty for future periods (>200%) could still be much higher than that of different GCMs and RCP scenarios. When tallied, we show that the total uncertainty could greatly hinder our ability to detect significant trends in burning rates for much of Canada at the end of the 21st century.
引用
收藏
页码:164 / 175
页数:12
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