Legal cannabis market shares during Canada's first year of recreational legalisation

Background: This study estimated legal products' share of Canada's total cannabis consumption during the first year of recreational legalisation, October 2018 to September 2019. Methods: Government data was used to estimate monthly recreational sales in dollars per capita, grams per user, and percentage share of kilograms or litres consumed. As explanatory factors, the analysis considered provincial differences in retail pricing (percentage mark-ups) and store density (stores per million users), as well as national monthly production of dry cannabis (kilograms) and cannabis oil (litres) finished products. Results: Legal recreational products' share of Canada's overall cannabis consumption began at 7.8% in October 2018 and grew to 23.7% by September 2019, with an average of 14.5% over the first 12 months. Sales growth was delayed by shortages of both dry cannabis products and licensed stores, but not cannabis oils. Across the 10 provinces, legal recreational shares in September 2019 varied from 13% to 70%; differences in store densities and retail prices partly explained the variation. Prince Edward Island's large 70% share seemed due to it having minimal product shortages, high store densities, and low prices. Conclusions: Legal recreational products captured market share to the extent they were available, accessible, and low-priced. Problems with those factors slowed the initial expansion of legal product sales but also suggested ways to gradually increase their market share.