Changes in anthropogenic impervious surfaces, precipitation and daily streamflow discharge: a historical perspective in a mid-atlantic subwatershed

Aerial photography provides a historical vehicle for determining long-term urban landscape change and, with concurrent daily streamflow and precipitation records, allows the historical relationship of anthropogenic impervious surfaces and streamflow to be explored. Anthropogenic impervious surface area in the upper Accotink Creek subwatershed (near Annandala, Virginia, USA) was mapped from six dates of rectified historical aerial photography ranging from 1949 to 1994. Results show that anthropogenic impervious surface area has grown from approximately 3% in 1949 to 33% in 1994. Coincident to this period, analysis of historical mean daily streamflow shows a statistically significant increase in the streamflow discharge response ( per meter of precipitation) associated with "normal" and "extreme" daily precipitation levels. Significant changes were also observed in the frequency of daily streamflow discharge at given volumes above and below the historical daily mean. Simultaneously, the historical magnitude, frequency and pattern of precipitation values greater than or equal to 0 mm, greater than or equal to 6.0 mm and greater than or equal to 35.0 mm show either no statistically significant change or influence on streamflow. Historical changes in streamflow in this basin appear to be related to increases in anthropogenic impervious surface cover. Historical aerial photography is a viable tool for revealing long-term landscape and ecosystem relationships, and allows landscape investigations to extend beyond the temporal and spatial constraints of historical satellite remote sensing data.