An improved car-following model from the perspective of driver's forecast behavior

In this paper, a new car-following model considering effect of the driver's forecast behavior is proposed based on the full velocity difference model (FVDM). Using the new model, we investigate the starting process of the vehicle motion under a traffic signal and find that the delay time of vehicle motion is reduced. Then the stability condition of the new model is derived and the modified Korteweg-de Vries (mKdV) equation is constructed to describe the traffic behavior near the critical point. Numerical simulation is compatible with the analysis of theory such as density wave, hysteresis loop, which shows that the new model is reasonable. The results show that considering the effect of driver's forecast behavior can help to enhance the stability of traffic flow.