Predicting mood decline following temporal lobe epilepsy surgery in adults

Objective: To develop a model to predict the probability of mood decline in adults following temporal lobe resection for the treatment of pharmacoresistant epilepsy. Methods: Variable selection was performed on 492 patients from the Cleveland Clinic using best subsets regression. After completing variable selection, a subset of variables was requested from four epilepsy surgery centers across North America (n = 100). All data were combined to develop a final model to predict postoperative mood decline (N = 592). Internal validation with bootstrap resampling was performed. A clinically significant increase in depressive symptoms was defined as a 15% increase in Beck Depression Inventory-Second Edition score and a postoperative raw score > 11. Results: Fourteen percent of patients in the Cleveland Clinic cohort and 22% of patients in the external cohort experienced clinically significant increases in depressive symptoms following surgery. The final prediction model included six predictor variables: psychiatric history, resection side, relationship status, verbal fluency score, age at preoperative testing, and presence/absence of malformation of cortical development on magnetic resonance imaging. The model had an optimism-adjusted c-statistic of .70 and good calibration, with slight probability overestimation in higher risk patients. Significance: Clinicians can utilize our nomogram via a paper tool or online calculator to estimate the risk of postoperative mood decline for individual patients prior to temporal lobe epilepsy surgery.