One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict

被引：124

作者：

Buhaug, H. ^{[1
,2
]}

Nordkvelle, J. ^{[1
]}

Bernauer, T. ^{[3
]}

Bohmelt, T. ^{[3
,4
]}

Brzoska, M. ^{[5
]}

Busby, J. W. ^{[6
]}

Ciccone, A. ^{[7
]}

Fjelde, H. ^{[8
]}

Gartzke, E. ^{[4
,9
]}

Gleditsch, N. P. ^{[1
,2
]}

Goldstone, J. A. ^{[10
,11
]}

Hegre, H. ^{[1
,8
]}

Holtermann, H. ^{[12
]}

Koubi, V. ^{[3
,13
]}

Link, J. S. A. ^{[5
]}

Link, P. M. ^{[5
]}

Lujala, P. ^{[14
]}

O'Loughlin, J. ^{[15
]}

Raleigh, C. ^{[16
]}

Scheffran, J. ^{[5
]}

Schilling, J. ^{[5
,17
]}

Smith, T. G. ^{[6
]}

Theisen, O. M. ^{[2
]}

Tol, R. S. J. ^{[18
,19
]}

Urdal, H. ^{[1
]}

von Uexkull, N. ^{[8
]}

机构：

[1] PRIO, Oslo, Norway

[2] Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Sociol & Polit Sci, N-7034 Trondheim, Norway

[3] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Ctr Comparat & Int Studies, Zurich, Switzerland

[4] Univ Essex, Dept Govt, Colchester CO4 3SQ, Essex, England

[5] Univ Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany

[6] Univ Texas Austin, Lyndon B Johnson Sch Publ Affairs, Austin, TX 78712 USA

[7] Univ Mannheim, Dept Econ, D-68131 Mannheim, Germany

[8] Uppsala Univ, Dept Peace & Conflict Res, Uppsala, Sweden

[9] Univ Calif San Diego, Dept Polit Sci, San Diego, CA 92103 USA

[10] George Mason Univ, Sch Publ Policy, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA

[11] Russian Acad Natl Econ & Publ Adm, Res Lab Polit Demog, Moscow, Russia

[12] Univ Oslo, Dept Polit Sci, Oslo, Norway

[13] Univ Bern, Dept Econ, Bern, Switzerland

[14] Norwegian Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Geog, N-7034 Trondheim, Norway

[15] Univ Colorado, Inst Behav Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA

[16] Univ Sussex, Dept Geog, Brighton, E Sussex, England

[17] Int Alert, London, England

[18] Univ Sussex, Dept Econ, Bringhton, England

[19] Free Univ Amsterdam, Dept Spatial Econ, Amsterdam, Netherlands

来源：

CLIMATIC CHANGE | 2014年 / 127卷 / 3-4期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

CIVIL CONFLICT; ECONOMIC SHOCKS; VARIABILITY; AFRICA; WEATHER; VIOLENCE; RISK; WAR;

D O I：

10.1007/s10584-014-1266-1

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

A recent Climatic Change review article reports a remarkable convergence of scientific evidence for a link between climatic events and violent intergroup conflict, thus departing markedly from other contemporary assessments of the empirical literature. This commentary revisits the review in order to understand the discrepancy. We believe the origins of the disagreement can be traced back to the review article's underlying quantitative meta-analysis, which suffers from shortcomings with respect to sample selection and analytical coherence. A modified assessment that addresses some of these problems suggests that scientific research on climate and conflict to date has produced mixed and inconclusive results.

引用

页码：391 / 397

页数：7

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