Modeling and Preventive Measures of Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease (HFMD) in China

被引：47

作者：

Li, Yong ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Jinhui ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Xinan ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Huazhong Normal Univ, Sch Math & Stat, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China

来源：

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH | 2014年 / 11卷 / 03期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

HFMD; the basic reproductive number; Chi-square test; goodness of fit; CENTRAL NERVOUS-SYSTEM; ENTEROVIRUS; 71; PULMONARY-EDEMA; INFECTIONS; EPIDEMIC; OUTBREAK;

D O I：

10.3390/ijerph110303108

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

This paper concentrates on the HFMD data of China from March 2009 to December 2012. We set up a mathematical model to fit those data with the goodness of fit and obtain the optimal parameter values of the model. By the Chi-square test of statistical inference, the optimal parameter values of the model are reasonable. We obtained the basic reproductive number of the disease for each year, and it is larger than 1. Thus, we conclude that HFMD will persist in China under the current conditions, so we investigate the preventive measures to control the HFMD. If the preventive measures proposed in our paper were implemented, HFMD would be controlled quickly and the number of infections would decline rapidly over a period of time.

引用

页码：3108 / 3117

页数：10

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