Effect of changes in perfusion defect size during serial regadenoson myocardial perfusion imaging on cardiovascular outcomes in high-risk patients

Background. The prognostic value of single-photon emission computed tomography myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) is well established. There is a paucity of data on the prognostic value of changes in perfusion defect size (PDS) on serial MPIs. Methods. From the MPI database at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, consecutive patients who underwent two regadenoson stress MPIs between July 2008 and March 2013 were identified. The MPIs were analyzed side-by-side using an automated software program for presence and change in PDS. Improvement in PDS was defined as a reduction >= 5% of left ventricle. A drop in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) was defined as a decrease >= 5%. The primary outcome was a composite of death, myocardial infarction (MI), and coronary revascularization (CR). Results. There were 698 patients (61 +/- 11 years, 53% male, 48% diabetes, 25% prior MI, 49% prior CR) who underwent two regadenoson MPIs within 16 +/- 9 months for clinical indications. The primary outcome occurred in 167 (24%) patients (8% death, 9% MI, 15% CR) during 24 +/- 16 months of follow-up after the second MPI. The MPIs were normal in both studies in 399 (57%, Group 1), showed improvement in 94 (14%, Group 2, PDS 15% +/- 16% vs 28% +/- 18%, P<.001) and no change or worsening in 205 patients (29%, Group 3, 28% +/- 17% vs 20% +/- 17%, P<.001). The best outcomes were seen in Group 1 and the worst in Group 3 (log-rank P<.001). Similar trends were seen for the components of the primary outcome (P=.04 for death, P<.001 for MI, P<.001 for CR). In a Cox-regression model that adjusted for baseline factors including PDS and LVEF on initial MPI, the hazard ratios for primary outcome were 2.0 (P=.02) and 3.9 (P<.001) for Groups 2 and 3 compared to Group 1, respectively. In addition, an LVEF drop >= 5% was independently associated with the primary outcome (HR 1.5, P=.01). Conclusion. Changes in PDS and LVEF on serial MPIs provide incremental prognostic information to initial and follow-up MPI findings. Lack of improvement or an increase in PDS and a drop in LVEF identify high-risk patients.