Probabilistic assessment of available transfer capability based on Monte Carlo method with sequential simulation

被引：85
作者：
Rodrigues, Anselmo B. [1 ]
Da Silva, Maria G. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Fed Maranhao, Dept Elect Engn, BR-65080040 Sao Luis Maranhao, Brazil
来源：
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS | 2007年 / 22卷 / 01期
关键词：
available transfer capability (ATC); composite system; linear programming; Monte Carlo method (MCM); power system reliability;
D O I：
10.1109/TPWRS.2006.887958
中图分类号：
TM [电工技术]; TN [电子技术、通信技术];
学科分类号：
0808 ; 0809 ;
摘要：
The objective of this paper is to assess the chronological variations in the available transfer capability (ATC) caused by uncertainties associated with hourly load fluctuations and equipment unavailabilities. The system states resulting from these uncertainties are generated using the Monte Carlo method with sequential simulation (MCMSS). The ATC for each generated state is evaluated through a linear dc optimal power flow (OPF). The test results, with:a modified version of the IEEE Reliability Test System, demonstrate that the time-dependent uncertainties have a significant impact on the ATC. These effects have been assessed through statistical indexes such as expected values, box plot, and percentiles.
引用
收藏
页码：484 / 492
页数：9
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