Individualized Prediction of Survival Benefit from Postmastectomy Radiotherapy for Patients with Breast Cancer with One to Three Positive Axillary Lymph Nodes

Purpose There still exist some arguments regarding the use of postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) for patients with breast cancer carrying one to three positive axillary lymph nodes considering the heterogeneity of this cohort. Here, we developed a prognostic nomogram to estimate the probability of long-term outcome in patients receiving or not receiving PMRT in order to assist in making individually locoregional treatment decisions for this particular cohort. Methods Altogether, 20,336 women, aged 18 to 80 years, diagnosed with breast cancer, and carrying one to three positive nodes were identified in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. We applied multivariant Cox hazard model to determine the impact of covariates on disease-specific survival (DSS) and overall survival (OS). Then, the nomogram was built accordingly. Internal and external validations were performed to examine the accuracy of nomograms. Results Age of diagnosis, tumor grade, size, estrogen and progesterone receptor status, and number of positive nodes were independent factors of DSS and OS in the multivariate analysis. Incorporating these factors into the constructed nomogram showed high accuracy when predicting 5- and 10-year survival, with internally and externally bootstrap-corrected concordance indexes in the range of 0.6 to 0.8. Conclusion Besides the number of involved nodes, extra variables existed as predictors of survival outcomes in this cohort; therefore, the recommendation of PMRT or no PMRT requires comprehensive consideration. This clinically validated nomogram provided a useful tool that could aid decision making by estimating DSS and OS benefits from PMRT, useful in predicting 5- and 10-year DSS and OS for patients with one to three positive nodes after mastectomy. Implications for Practice This study evaluated population-based data to identify prognostic factors associated with patients with breast cancer with one to three lymph nodes and help clinicians to weigh the benefit of postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT). Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data were used to develop a prognostic nomogram to predict the likelihood of long-term survival with and without PMRT in order to optimize the individual locoregional control strategy for this particular cohort. This clinically validated nomogram provides a useful tool to predict 5- and 10-year disease-specific survival and overall survival for patients with one to three positive nodes and can aid tailored clinical decision making by estimating predicted benefit from PMRT.