SHELTER-IN-PLACE ORDERS AND PUBLIC HEALTH: EVIDENCE FROM CALIFORNIADURING THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

A shelter-in-place order (SIPO) is one of the most restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions designed to curb the spread of COVID-19. On March 19, 2020, California Governor Gavin Newsom issued the first statewide SIPO in the United States. The order closed non-essential businesses and required residents to shelter in place for all but essential activities such as grocery shopping, retrieving prescriptions from a pharmacy, or caring for relatives. This study is the first in the economics literature to estimate the effect of a statewide SIPO on public health. Using daily state-level coronavirus data and a synthetic control research design, we find that California's statewide SIPO reduced COVID-19 cases by 160.9 to 194.7 per 100,000 population by April 20, one month following the order. We further find that California's SIPO led to as many as 1,566 fewer COVID-19 deaths during this period. Back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that there were about 649 to 703 job losses per life saved, and about 14 to16 job losses per case averted during this post-treatment period. (C) 2020 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management