Examining fuel treatment longevity through experimental and simulated surface fire behaviour: a maritime pine case study

The adequate prediction of fire behaviour characteristics for both scientific and management objectives is deeply impacted by the performance of fire behaviour models. Both the lack of experimentation and limitations in fire modelling constrain current understanding of fuel treatment effectiveness and longevity. The residual effect of a 10-year-old prescribed fire was quantified by both simulating fire behaviour and observing real-world fire behaviour in treated (T10) and untreated (U25) fuels in a 25-year-old maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton) stand in Portugal. Fire behaviour characteristics were measured in experimental surface fires (n = 36). Surface-fire behaviour was simulated using BehavePlus with custom fuel models for T10, U25, and U15 (the untreated fuel complex when the stand was 15 years old). The T10 fuel complex had significantly less decomposing litter load and shrub cover and load than the U25 fuel complex. The observed rate of fire spread did not differ between fuel complexes after accounting for the effects of other environmental variables, but flame length in T10 was 25% lower than that in U25. BehavePlus simulations contradicted the difference observed in flame length. Inconsistent and misleading assessments of fuel treatment effectiveness with detrimental impacts on the outcomes of fuel management may result from the generalized practice of solely using simulation in lieu of experimental fires.