Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes

被引：757

作者：

Bender, Morris A. ^{[1
]}

Knutson, Thomas R. ^{[1
]}

Tuleya, Robert E. ^{[2
]}

Sirutis, Joseph J. ^{[1
]}

Vecchi, Gabriel A. ^{[1
]}

Garner, Stephen T. ^{[1
]}

Held, Isaac M. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] NOAA, Geophys Fluid Dynam Lab, Princeton, NJ 08540 USA

[2] Old Dominion Univ, Ctr Coastal Phys Oceanog, Norfolk, VA 23508 USA

来源：

SCIENCE | 2010年 / 327卷 / 5964期

关键词：

TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY; NORTH-ATLANTIC; CLIMATE-CHANGE; VARIABILITY; SIMULATIONS;

D O I：

10.1126/science.1180568

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20 degrees N.

引用

页码：454 / 458

页数：5

共 23 条

[1]

[Anonymous], 2008, Nat. Hazards Rev, DOI [10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2008)9:1(29), DOI 10.1061/(ASCE)1527-6988(2008)9:1(29)]

[2]

Bender MA, 2000, MON WEATHER REV, V128, P917, DOI 10.1175/1520-0493(2000)128<0917:RCSOHO>2.0.CO

[3]

[4] The operational GFDL coupled hurricane-ocean prediction system and a summary of its performance [J].

Bender, Morris A. ;

Ginis, Isaac ;

Tuleya, Robert ;

Thomas, Biju ;

Marchok, Timothy .

MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW, 2007, 135 (12) :3965-3989

[5] How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate? [J].

Bengtsson, Lennart ;

Hodges, Kevin I. ;

Esch, Monika ;

Keenlyside, Noel ;

Kornblueh, Luis ;

Luo, Jing-Jia ;

Yamagata, Toshio .

TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY, 2007, 59 (04) :539-561

[6] The increasing intensity of the strongest tropical cyclones [J].

Elsner, James B. ;

Kossin, James P. ;

Jagger, Thomas H. .

NATURE, 2008, 455 (7209) :92-95

[7] Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years [J].

Emanuel, K .

NATURE, 2005, 436 (7051) :686-688

[8] Environmental factors affecting tropical cyclone power dissipation [J].

Emanuel, Kerry .

JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2007, 20 (22) :5497-5509

[9] The Role of Aerosols in the Evolution of Tropical North Atlantic Ocean Temperature Anomalies [J].

Evan, Amato T. ;

Vimont, Daniel J. ;

Heidinger, Andrew K. ;

Kossin, James P. ;

Bennartz, Ralf .

SCIENCE, 2009, 324 (5928) :778-781

[10] Attribution of cyclogenesis region sea surface temperature change to anthropogenic influence [J].

Gillett, N. P. ;

Stott, P. A. ;

Santer, B. D. .

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2008, 35 (09)

← 1 2 3 →