Impact of accident precursors on risk estimates from accident databases

被引：23

作者：

Kirchsteiger, C

机构：

[1] European Commission, Joint Research Centre, TP 670

来源：

JOURNAL OF LOSS PREVENTION IN THE PROCESS INDUSTRIES | 1997年 / 10卷 / 03期

关键词：

accident database; industrial risk; risk assessment; probabilistic method; Bayesian analysis; accident precursors;

D O I：

10.1016/S0950-4230(96)00047-2

中图分类号：

TQ [化学工业];

学科分类号：

0817 ;

摘要：

The significance of quantitative risk estimates depends not only on the number of accident events included, but also on the criteria differentiating accidents and accident precursors. Based on exemplary data from the European Commission's Major Accident Reporting System, the conventional risk estimator associated with the frequency of several types of major accidents is quantified. Bayesian calculations show that incorporating accident precursors in the accident frequency estimation results, under certain conditions, in significantly increased frequency estimates. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：159 / 167

页数：9

共 12 条

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[2]

[Anonymous], 1981, RELIABILITY RISK ANA

[3]

BERGER JO, 1980, STATISTICAL DECISION

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