Regional development and climate change mitigation modelling of municipal solid waste emissions in the middle east

This study adapts a climate change mitigation model to assess impacts of municipal solid wastes in the Middle East and North Africa region, taking into account the future development of integrated waste management infrastructure involving collection, treatment and disposal. Mitigated and unmitigated disposal scenarios including waste growth reduction are used to estimate disposal methane emission changes at regional and subregional level. This study shows that unmitigated regional emissions by 2050 could rise to 296542 GgCO(2eq) from a current level in 2015 of 128184 GgCO(2eq) additionally decreasing annually by up to 8.75% falling to 10.16% due to waste characterisation changes as developing countries in the region progress to developed country status. A further annual rise, due to hotter drier climate conditions experienced as desertification, of up to a range of 1.70% increasing to 2.29% is also demonstrated. The findings enable regional planners to better assess and develop plans for implementation of integrated waste management policies.