The size of the population potentially in need of palliative care in Germany - an estimation based on death registration data

Background: No data exist on the size of the population potentially in need of palliative care in Germany. The aim of this study is to estimate the size of the German population that may benefit from palliative care. Method: Based on existing population-based methods (Rosenwax and Murtagh), German death registration data were analyzed and contrasted with international results. The data include all death cases in 2013 in Germany. Results: According to the method Rosenwax defined, between 40.7 % (minimal estimate) and 96.1 % (maximal estimate) of death cases could benefit from palliative care. The estimation, based on Murtagh's refined method, results in 78.0 % of death cases potentially being eligible for palliative care. The percentage of potential palliative care candidates is conditioned by age. Based on the Murtagh Method, in the age category between 30 and 39 years, a potential demand for palliative care can be found for 40.4 % percent of all deaths occurring in this age category, with this number increasing to 80.3 % in the age bracket of 80 years and over. Conclusion: An estimation of the size of the population in need is essential for healthcare planning. Therefore, our data serve as a guide and starting point for further research.