A foundation for the strategic long-term planning of the renewable energy sector in Brazil: Hydroelectricity and wind energy in the face of climate change scenarios

被引：44
作者：
Ruffato-Ferreira, Vera [1 ]
Barreto, Renata da Costa [2 ]
Oscar Junior, Antonio [3 ]
Silva, Wanderson Luiz [4 ]
Viana, Daniel de Berredo [2 ]
Sena do Nascimento, Jose Antonio [5 ]
Vasconcelos de Freitas, Marcos Aurelio [1 ]
机构：
[1] Fed Univ Rio de Janeiro UFRJ, Energy Planning Program, COPPE, Pedro Calmon Ave S-N,Ctr Tecnol,Block C,Room 216, Rio De Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
[2] Univ Fed Rio de Janeiro, COPPE, IVIG, Int Virtual Inst Global Change, Ave Pedro Calmon S-N,Bloco P-P2, BR-21941596 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
[3] Univ Estado Rio De Janeiro, Inst Geog, Ave Sao Francisco Xavier 524,4th Floor,Block F, BR-20550900 Rio De Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
[4] Ctr Math & Nat Sci CCMN, Inst Geosci IGEO, Dept Meteorol, Ave Athos da Silveira Ramos 274,Bloco A, BR-21941916 Rio De Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
[5] Brazilian Inst Geog & Stat IBGE, Coordinat Nat Resources & Environm Studies, CREN, DGC, Republ Chile Ave 500,15th Floor, Rio De Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
来源：
RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS | 2017年 / 72卷
关键词：
Renewable energy; Hydroelectricity; Wind energy; Brazil; Climate modeling; GENERATION; AMAZON;
D O I：
10.1016/j.rser.2016.10.020
中图分类号：
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号：
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要：
The current article assesses the vulnerability of renewable energies in Brazil in the face of climate change, with hydroelectricity and wind power taken as case studies. Future climate data produced by the National Institute for Space Research were employed for three time slices (2010-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) taken from the Eta 20 km regional model using the global model HadGem2-ES of the IPCC AR5, for scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Based on these data and using indicators, it was possible to generate predictions that are useful for the evaluation of the impacts of future climate scenarios on the current energy infrastructure, enabling the proposition of recommendations for mitigation and adaptation in the energy sector, a strategic subject for Brazilian governmental programs.
引用
收藏
页码：1124 / 1137
页数：14
相关论文
共 43 条
[31]   Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate [J].
Milly, PCD ;
Dunne, KA ;
Vecchia, AV .
NATURE, 2005, 438 (7066) :347-350
[32]   The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment [J].
Moss, Richard H. ;
Edmonds, Jae A. ;
Hibbard, Kathy A. ;
Manning, Martin R. ;
Rose, Steven K. ;
van Vuuren, Detlef P. ;
Carter, Timothy R. ;
Emori, Seita ;
Kainuma, Mikiko ;
Kram, Tom ;
Meehl, Gerald A. ;
Mitchell, John F. B. ;
Nakicenovic, Nebojsa ;
Riahi, Keywan ;
Smith, Steven J. ;
Stouffer, Ronald J. ;
Thomson, Allison M. ;
Weyant, John P. ;
Wilbanks, Thomas J. .
NATURE, 2010, 463 (7282) :747-756
[33]  
Obregon G, 2007, MMA RELATERIO, P2
[34]  
OTL de Souza, 2004, DESENVOLVIMENTO MODE, P113
[35]   The vulnerability of wind power to climate change in Brazil [J].
Pereira de Lucena, Andre Frossard ;
Szklo, Alexandre Salem ;
Schaeffer, Roberto ;
Dutra, Ricardo Marques .
RENEWABLE ENERGY, 2010, 35 (05) :904-912
[36]   The impacts of global climate changes on the wind power density in Brazil [J].
Pereira, Enio B. ;
Martins, Fernando R. ;
Pes, Marcelo P. ;
da Cruz Segundo, Eliude I. ;
Lyra, Andre de A. .
RENEWABLE ENERGY, 2013, 49 :107-110
[37]   RCP 8.5-A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions [J].
Riahi, Keywan ;
Rao, Shilpa ;
Krey, Volker ;
Cho, Cheolhung ;
Chirkov, Vadim ;
Fischer, Guenther ;
Kindermann, Georg ;
Nakicenovic, Nebojsa ;
Rafaj, Peter .
CLIMATIC CHANGE, 2011, 109 (1-2) :33-57
[38]   Renewable energy generation for the rural electrification of isolated communities in the Amazon Region [J].
Sanchez, A. S. ;
Torres, E. A. ;
Kalid, R. A. .
RENEWABLE & SUSTAINABLE ENERGY REVIEWS, 2015, 49 :278-290
[39]  
Schaeffer R., 2008, Mudancas climaticas e seguranca energetica no Brasil, P67
[40]  
SEN PK, 1968, J AM STAT ASSOC, V63, P1379
12345