Estimation of Mortality Rate in Indonesia with Lee-Carter Model

被引：0
作者：
Safitri, L. [1 ]
Mardiyati, S. [2 ]
Rahim, H. [2 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Indonesia, Fac Math & Nat Sci FMIPA, Dept Math, Depok 16424, Indonesia
[2] PT Asuransi Jiwasraya, Jakarta, Indonesia
来源：
PROCEEDINGS OF THE 3RD INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON CURRENT PROGRESS IN MATHEMATICS AND SCIENCES 2017 (ISCPMS2017) | 2018年 / 2023卷
关键词：
Lee-Carter Model; Singular Value Decomposition; Least Square; Mortality rate;
D O I：
10.1063/1.5064207
中图分类号：
O29 [应用数学];
学科分类号：
070104 ;
摘要：
Lee Carter Model is a model that had been used to forecast the mortality rate on specific or certain region. This model of mortality shows that logarithm of mortality rate (ln(M-x,M-t) ) is the sum of parameters which is dependant to number of ages (a(x)), and multiplication of parameters that is dependant to number of ages and stochastic process that is dependant to the year of observation and independent error with mean that is 0 and the variance is sigma(2)(epsilon). This paper aim to estimates parameters a(x), b(x), and k(t), in which parameter a(x) will be estimated by using Least Square method, while b(x) and k(t) will be estimated by using Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) method. The result of this research is the estimation value of mortality rate in Indonesia. In the estimation process, python language programming will be applied.
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页数：6
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