North Korea's choice of a nuclear strategy: a dynamic approach

被引：6

作者：

Lee, Manseok ^{[1
]}

Lee, Sangmin ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Calif Berkeley, Goldman Sch Publ Policy, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[2] Korea Inst Def Anal, Seoul, South Korea

来源：

DEFENCE AND SECURITY ANALYSIS | 2020年 / 36卷 / 04期

关键词：

North Korea; nuclear strategy; nuclear weapons; dynamic approach; the US-ROK alliance; WEAPONS; TABOO; BOMB; WAR;

D O I：

10.1080/14751798.2020.1858536

中图分类号：

D81 [国际关系];

学科分类号：

030207 ;

摘要：

This study presents an analytical framework for predicting the conditions under which North Korea would choose a particular nuclear strategy. Based on the assessment of North Korea's strategic environment, which involves its national identity and interests, strategic goals, relations with allies, and military capabilities, the nuclear strategy choice model presented in this study explains how North Korea's beliefs about its relative capabilities vis-a-vis the US and South Korea determine its strategy regarding the employment of nuclear weapons. As such, this study represents a necessary extension of the prior literature, which has focused on static theories concerning North Korea's nuclear strategy. This study concludes by offering policy recommendations for dealing with a nuclear-armed North Korea.

引用

页码：377 / 397

页数：21