Easing COVID-19 lockdown measures while protecting the older restricts the deaths to the level of the full lockdown

被引：12

作者：

Fokas, A. S. ^{[1
,2
]}

Cuevas-Maraver, J. ^{[3
,4
]}

Kevrekidis, P. G. ^{[5
,6
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Cambridge, Dept Appl Math & Theoret Phys, Wilberforce Rd, Cambridge CB3 0WA, England

[2] Univ Southern Calif, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA

[3] Univ Seville, Grp Fis Lineal, Dept Fis Aplicada 1, Escuela Politecn Super, C Virgen de Africa 7, Seville 41011, Spain

[4] Univ Sevilla IMUS, Inst Matemat, Edificio Celestino Mutis,Avda Reina Mercedes S-N, Seville 41012, Spain

[5] Univ Massachusetts, Dept Math & Stat, Amherst, MA 01003 USA

[6] Univ Oxford, Math Inst, Oxford, England

来源：

SCIENTIFIC REPORTS | 2021年 / 11卷 / 01期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会; 英国工程与自然科学研究理事会;

关键词：

EVOLUTION;

D O I：

10.1038/s41598-021-82932-8

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Guided by a rigorous mathematical result, we have earlier introduced a numerical algorithm, which using as input the cumulative number of deaths caused by COVID-19, can estimate the effect of easing of the lockdown conditions. Applying this algorithm to data from Greece, we extend it to the case of two subpopulations, namely, those consisting of individuals below and above 40 years of age. After supplementing the Greek data for deaths with the data for the number of individuals reported to be infected by SARS-CoV-2, we estimated the effect on deaths and infections in the case that the easing of the lockdown measures is different for these two subpopulations. We found that if the lockdown measures are partially eased only for the young subpopulation, then the effect on deaths and infections is small. However, if the easing is substantial for the older population, this effect may be catastrophic.

引用

页数：12

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