Do changes in threat salience predict the moral content of sermons? The case of Friday Khutbas in Turkey

We analyzed the content of "Friday Khutbas" delivered in Turkish mosques between January 2001 and December 2018 to test the prediction of moral foundations theory (MFT) literature that threat salience would lead to an increased endorsement of binding moral foundations. As societal-level indicators of threat, we examined (a) historical data on the proportion of terrorism-related news published in a Turkish newspaper, (b) the geopolitical risk score of Turkey as measured by Geopolitical Risk Index, and (c) Google Trends data on the search frequency of words "terror", "terrorism", or "terrorist". To measure the endorsement of moral foundations, we built a Turkish Moral Foundations Dictionary and counted the relative frequency of morality-related words in the khutbas delivered in Istanbul, Turkey. Time series analyses showed that risk salience in a certain month was positively related to endorsement of the loyalty/betrayal foundation in that month's Friday Khutbas. There were mixed results for the other moral foundations.