Prevalence of insufficient weight loss 5 years after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass: metabolic consequences and prediction estimates: a prospective registry study

Objective The study aimed to investigate the heterogeneity of weight loss 5 years after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) and the association with cardiometabolic health as well as to model prediction estimates of surgical treatment failure. Design Retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from the Scandinavian Obesity Surgery Registry (SOReg). Setting 29 surgical units from the whole of Sweden contributed data. Inclusion was restricted to surgical units with a retention rate of >60% five years postsurgery. Participants 10 633 patients were extracted from SOReg. In total 5936 participants were included in the final sample, 79.1% females. The mean age of participants before surgery was 39.4 +/- 9 years and mean body mass index (BMI) 42.9 +/- 5.1. 2322 were excluded (death before the 5-year follow-up (n=148), other types of surgery or reoperations (n=637), age at surgery 55 years (n=1329), presurgery BMI <35 kg/m(2) (n=208)). In total, 2375 (29%) of eligible individuals were lost to the 5-year follow-up. Main outcome The occurrence of surgical treatment failure 5 years after surgery was based on the three previously published definitions: per cent excess BMI loss <50%, total weight loss 35 where initial BMI was <50, or >40 where initial BMI was >50. In addition, we report the association between surgical treatment failure and biochemical markers of obesity-related comorbidity. We also developed predictive models to identify patients with a high risk of surgical treatment failure 5 years postsurgery. Results In total, 23.1% met at least one definition of surgical treatment failure at year 5 which was associated with (adjusted OR) with 95% CI): type 2 diabetes (T2D, OR 2.1; 95% CI 1.6 to 2.7), dyslipidaemia (OR 1.8; 95% CI 1.6 to 2.1) and hypertension (OR 1.9; 95% CI 1.6 to 2.2). Surgical treatment failure at 5 years was predicted by combined demographic and anthropometric measures from baseline, 1 and 2 years postsurgery (area under the curve=0.874). Conclusion Laparoscopic RYGB leads to a marked and sustained weight loss with improvement of obesity-related comorbidity in most patients. However, 23% met at least one definition of surgical treatment failure, which was associated with a greater risk of relapse and a higher incidence of T2D, dyslipidaemia and hypertension 5 years after surgery. Poor initial weight loss and early weight regain are strong predictors of long-term treatment failure and may be used for early identification of patients who require additional weight loss support.