Conflict-Related Sexual Violence and the Re-Escalation of Lethal Violence

To what extent does sexual violence influence the likelihood of re-escalating lethal violence after a period of inactivity? Despite a substantive body of research that explores conflict recurrence, the literature has largely neglected the role of rebel group dynamics. I address this gap arguing that reports of rebel sexual violence in periods deemed inactive because of low numbers of casualties are associated with greater risks of escalating lethal violence. Specifically, building on research that shows an association between recruitment and rape as a socialization method during civil war, I argue that reports of sexual violence indicate that rebels are maintaining and mobilizing fighters in inactive conflict years. I systematically test this argument on all inactive intrastate conflict years from 1989 to 2015 using the updated Sexual Violence in Armed Conflict dataset and Armed Conflict Termination dataset. The results provide robust support for the argument that a re-escalation of lethal violence following inactive periods is more likely when rebels are reported to perpetrate sexual violence in both active and subsequent inactive periods.