Predictive value of CHA2DS2-VASc scores regarding the risk of stroke and all-cause mortality in patients with atrial fibrillation (CONSORT compliant)

Background: Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) have a higher risk of fatal complications (e.g., stroke). This investigation was performed as an observational retrospective cohort study includes 137 patients (age 61 +/- 15; 34.3% women) with a primary diagnosis of AF (paroxysmal, persistent, and permanent). Methods: We collected information about the drug therapy, comorbidities and survival of AF patients and determined their congestive heart failure, hypertension, age, diabetes mellitus, prior stroke or TIA or thromboembolism, vascular disease, age, sex category (CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc) scores. Statistical analysis identified patients with high CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc scores and defined the predictive value of individual parameters, or their combination, with regards to the outcomes of stroke and mortality. Results: CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc scores identified 43.8% of the patients as low to intermediate risk (score 0-1) and 56.2% of the patients as high risk (score >= 2). Increasing CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc scores were not only accompanied by an increase in the incidence of stroke (P-trend <.001) but also by an increase in the 3 to 5 years mortality (P=.005). Comparison of anticoagulation and anti-aggregation treatment between the 3 groups of AF did not show any significant statistical difference. Highly significant predictors of death were the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score (OR 1.71, 95% CI 1.10-2.67, P<.017) as well as other risk factors not included in the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score such as valvular heart disease (OR 5.04, 95% CI 1.10-23.10, P=.037), hyperlipidemia (OR 4.82,95% CI 1.03-22.63, P=.046) and chronic renal failure (OR 14.21, 95% CI 2.41-83.91, P=.003). The type of AF type did not affect survival (P=.158) nor the incidence of stroke (P=.466). Patients with paroxysmal AF were linked to significantly lower frequencies of ischemic heart disease (P<.0001), vascular disease (P=.002), diabetes mellitus (P=.047), valvular heart disease (P=.03) and heart failure/left ventricular dysfunction (P=.015). Conclusion: The CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score correctly predicted the patients at high-risk for 3 to 5 years mortality and confirmed its significant predictive value in the patients with AF.