Assessing the Validity of College Success Indicators for the At-Risk Student: Toward Developing a Best-Practice Model

This study assessed the feasibility of using precollege success indicators to identify at-risk students at a large 4-year public research university in the Midwest. Retention data from students who participated in an established student success program were examined. The findings affirm that the initial admissions assessment identifying at-risk students is a feasible predictor of academic success, including high school (HS) grade point average (GPA) could predict student success over and above the variance accounted for by American College Test alone; the semester in which students are admitted is a predictor of success; first-semester college GPA can predict academic success over and above chance; there is a significant positive relationship between cognitive ability (i.e., American College Test x HS GPA) and SUCCESS; HS GPA could be used as the single best predictor of student success; and using all three variables to identify student success appears warranted. A PASS model is offered to assist in the development of interventions and success programs.