Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability, and Decision

被引:19
作者
Bradley, Richard [1 ]
Helgeson, Casey [2 ]
Hill, Brian [2 ]
机构
[1] London Sch Econ & Polit Sci, Dept Philosophy Log & Sci Method, London, England
[2] HEC Paris, GREGHEC, CNRS, Paris, France
基金
英国艺术与人文研究理事会;
关键词
UNCERTAINTIES; AMBIGUITY; IPCC; RISK;
D O I
10.1086/692145
中图分类号
N09 [自然科学史]; B [哲学、宗教];
学科分类号
01 ; 0101 ; 010108 ; 060207 ; 060305 ; 0712 ;
摘要
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in its periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions? We take a formal decision-making perspective to investigate how scientific input formulated in the IPCC's novel framework might inform decisions in a principled way through a normative decision model.
引用
收藏
页码:500 / 522
页数:23
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