Still second-order? European elections in the era of populism, extremism, and euroskepticism

被引:29
作者
Ehin, Piret [1 ,2 ]
Talving, Liisa [3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Tartu, Comparat Polit, Tartu, Estonia
[2] Univ Tartu, Johan Skytte Inst Polit Studies, Lossi 36, EE-51003 Tartu, Estonia
[3] Univ Tartu, Polit, Tartu, Estonia
关键词
European Parliament elections; political parties; second-order theory; turnout; voting behaviour; PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS; VOTE; MODEL;
D O I
10.1177/0263395720986026
中图分类号
D81 [国际关系];
学科分类号
030207 ;
摘要
The continued relevance of the second-order elections (SOE) theory is one of the most widely debated issues in the study of European Parliament (EP) elections. While the theory has been criticized from many angles, the recent success of populist, extremist, and Eurosceptic parties raises additional questions about the applicability of a model that depicts EP elections as a low-stakes affair revolving around national issues. This article tests the SOE model with party-level data from all 175 EP elections held between 1979 and 2019. While turnout in EP elections remains well below participation rates in national elections, the 2019 EP elections were marked by a significant reduction in the average turnout gap. Across all election years, party size is the most potent predictor of electoral gains and losses in EP elections. Incumbency is associated with electoral losses in most EP election years. These effects are moderated by the electoral cycle and the electoral system in some but not all years. The expectation that the SOE model performs worse in countries with fragmented party systems was not confirmed. All in all, the SOE model continues to wield significant explanatory power in both the West and the East.
引用
收藏
页码:467 / 485
页数:19
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